Biden needs a more robust electoral map.| www.natesilver.net
So is Trump's, but an extra four years makes a difference, and it could be the difference in the election.| www.natesilver.net
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.| FiveThirtyEight
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.| www.natesilver.net
There aren’t many changes from 2020 — but here are the exceptions.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
Here’s what I’ve learned after many long hours at the WSOP.| www.natesilver.net
It’s not just Republicans who are at risk of epistemic closure.| www.natesilver.net
The presidential model will be available to Silver Bulletin subscribers beginning in June.| www.natesilver.net
The progressive coalition is splitting over Israel and identity politics.| www.natesilver.net
Voters constantly hear that the world is in a state of crisis. It isn't a surprise that they're kicking out incumbents.| www.natesilver.net
Americans are spending as much of their paychecks as ever on fast food — and everything else.| www.natesilver.net
Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An ave…| FiveThirtyEight
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…| FiveThirtyEight
An update about me, FiveThirtyEight and the future after the Disney layoffs| www.natesilver.net
We checked all of our sports and election predictions since 2008. They’re reliable.| FiveThirtyEight