If the popular vote is close, Trump will probably win the election.| www.natesilver.net
For instance, why it so different from 538?| www.natesilver.net
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.| FiveThirtyEight
It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.| www.natesilver.net
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.| www.natesilver.net
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
Voters constantly hear that the world is in a state of crisis. It isn't a surprise that they're kicking out incumbents.| www.natesilver.net
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.| FiveThirtyEight
And they need consistent standards, not make-it-up-as-you-go| www.natesilver.net