If the popular vote is close, Trump will probably win the election.| www.natesilver.net
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists…| FiveThirtyEight
Game Theory Optimal (GTO) Texas Holdem Poker Theory | Networks
Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position.| www.natesilver.net
We don’t talk much about the 1908 presidential election, but that I think it was fascinating. The race featured William Howard Taft for the GOP against William Jennings Bryan for the Democrats. By nominating Bryan, a candidate who had already run and lost on two previous occasions, the Democrats were practically throwing this election to the GOP. His signature issue in the 1896 (opposing the gold standard) didn’t really make sense in the context of 1908. And while his populist broadsides ...| www.slowboring.com
So is Trump's, but an extra four years makes a difference, and it could be the difference in the election.| www.natesilver.net
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.| www.natesilver.net
Reality comes for everyone — and now it's come for Joe BIden.| www.natesilver.net
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
So why won't the media admit as much?| FiveThirtyEight
The polls may be off in either direction. But banking on an error in your favor is usually a red flag.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, ranking my 7 favorite US cities.| www.natesilver.net
Democrats are taking a huge risk either way. But they shouldn't try to get away with a Rose Garden campaign.| www.natesilver.net