To the best of its knowledge and belief, Convex Strategies considers the information contained in this website as accurate only as at the date of publication. All information and opinions on this w…| Convex Strategies
“The interest burden of the debt is at what I would call normal historical levels.” Janet Yellen. June 2024. US Treasury Secretary Yellen (Professor Yellen, as we know her) gives a masterclass in o…| Convex Strategies
In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.| Congressional Budget Office
“Those whose job it is to manage risk today tend to focus on the things to which probabilities can be attached and shrug their shoulders about everything else.” Niall Feguson, Oct. 2023. Decent not…| Convex Strategies
In our discussions last month about entropy, we introduced the term “arrow of time”. “Like with all things that live in non-ergodic, path dependent space, time dependence matters. Something that ma…| Convex Strategies