US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions| NBER
The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
In March 2023, the U.S. labor market continued its rock solid push forward, with 303,000 more jobs and the unemployment rate back down to 3.8%. Are there cracks below the surface? Not really.| stayathomemacro.substack.com
Background| FRED Blog
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator| fred.stlouisfed.org
Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, 2 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data.| fred.stlouisfed.org