The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.| FiveThirtyEight
It’s the Electoral College.| www.natesilver.net
New surveys of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania taken this week offer the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for the Democratic Party since President Biden abandoned his re-election bid.| www.nytimes.com
Biden needs a more robust electoral map.| www.natesilver.net
The rules may be different when it’s a sprint and not a marathon.| www.natesilver.net
So far, the vice president is still coming out ahead.| www.natesilver.net
it will always be 2016| freddiedeboer.substack.com
It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.| www.natesilver.net
So is Trump's, but an extra four years makes a difference, and it could be the difference in the election.| www.natesilver.net
But Democrats probably need a better messenger than Biden.| www.natesilver.net
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
It’s not just Republicans who are at risk of epistemic closure.| www.natesilver.net
The polls may be off in either direction. But banking on an error in your favor is usually a red flag.| www.natesilver.net
Americans are spending as much of their paychecks as ever on fast food — and everything else.| www.natesilver.net
The line between expertise and politics has become increasingly blurry. The demise of "Old Twitter" could help to reverse that.| www.natesilver.net