Explaining the gap between Harris’s favorability ratings and the head-to-head polls.| www.natesilver.net
We don't lack in explanations for why he returned to the White House.| www.natesilver.net
And what does “momentum” mean in the context of an election forecast?| www.natesilver.net
Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.| www.natesilver.net
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.| FiveThirtyEight
She's good at this. And her speech was a shift away from Clintonian politics — and from wokeness.| www.natesilver.net
You can like the president or his policies. But his campaign was a disaster. And he didn't just drop out — he lost.| www.natesilver.net
Challenger Mode has been working for her. But running as the frontrunner can be harder.| www.natesilver.net
The rules may be different when it’s a sprint and not a marathon.| www.natesilver.net
It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.| www.natesilver.net
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, ranking my 7 favorite US cities.| www.natesilver.net
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.| FiveThirtyEight