In 1975, Ann Landers asked her readers a hypothetical question: If you had you had your life to live over again, would you still have children? Over 10,000 replied. 70% said no. I’ve seen several random “child-free” activists cite Landers’ survey as proof that they know the One True Way. It turns out, however, that […]| Econlib
I’m skeptical about all predictions of disaster. I’m predictably skeptical about doom-and-gloom predictions used to rationalize big expansions of government power: global warming, overpopulation, avian flu, resource depletion, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, “Mexifornia,” etc. But I’ve also long raised my eyebrow when libertarians predicted a Clintonian coup, hyper-inflation, or an American re-run of the Weimar republic. […]| Econlib
Volume 2: Macroeconomics of Grady Klein and Yoram Bauman’s Cartoon Introduction to Economics ships this week – a great last-minute stocking stuffer. Volume 1 was good (see here and here); volume 2 is better. Chapter 2 (“Unemployment”) does a swell job of explaining the Keynesian-Classical debate. Wage flexibility is front and center, free of obscurantism. […]| Econlib
If you think Rothbard was harsh on Hayek in Rothbard vs. the Philosophers, here’s what he has to say about Leo Strauss’s Thoughts on Machiavelli: First, something should be said about the manner, the texture, the methodology of this book, which is really so absurd as to be almost incredible. It is based on the […]| Econlib
Tyler Cowen often inveighs against the Fallacy of Mood Affiliation: It seems to me that people are first choosing a mood or attitude, and then finding the disparate views which match to that mood and, to themselves, justifying those views by the mood. I call this the “fallacy of mood affiliation,” and it is one […]| Econlib
I’m an IQ realist, all the way. IQ tests aren’t perfect, but they’re an excellent proxy for what ordinary language calls “intelligence.” A massive body of research confirms that IQ predicts not just educational success, but career success. Contrary to critics, IQ tests are not culturally biased; they fairly measure genuine group differences in intelligence. […]| Econlib
Two months ago, Daniel Reeves offered me a remarkable bet. The terms: 1. Bryan reads Climate Shock. But feel free to skip the parts about short-term extreme weather events — that’s probably least compelling and least relevant to the long-term cost/benefit analysis. 2. Danny puts up $500 to Bryan’s $250 on Bryan doing a 180 on […]| Econlib
By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. Six […]| Econlib
Robert Putnam, famed author of Bowling Alone, has spent much of his career regretfully publicizing the dangers of diversity. His most famous claim, of course, is that “social capital” – usually operationalized as “trust” – is vital for a good society. And though he’s a liberal in good standing, he urges us to face facts: […]| Econlib
Earlier this year, my Ancestry and Long-Run Growth Reading Club walked through Putterman and Weil’s “Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality.” (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2010) Quick review: Putterman and Weil measure the ancestral origins of the world’s current inhabitants, then show that past civilization of countries’ inhabitants is […]| Econlib
In case you missed any segment of the latest Reading Club, here’s the full package: Background Lead-in Part #1: Putterman and Weil Putterman’s Commentaries, with My Replies Part #2: Comin, Easterly, and Gong Part #3: Spolaore and Wacziarg Two Fun Facts from Putterman-Weil Part #4: Chanda, Cook, and Putterman Chanda Comments AMA Questions AMA Answers […]| Econlib
Putterman and Weil generously shared their whole data set with me – including a lot of info not available online. I soon discovered two fun facts about ancestry-adjusted state and agricultural history. Remember that state history is bounded from 0-1, agricultural history from 0-10.5. Fact 1: The U.S. does better on both measures than the […]| Econlib
When I describe mental illness as “an extreme, socially disapproved preference,” the most convincing counter-example people offer is depression. Do I really think people “want to be depressed” or choose depression as a bizarre alternative lifestyle? My quick answer: These objections confuse preferences with meta-preferences. No one chooses to have the gene for cilantro aversion. Yet people […]| Econlib
Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti‘s “Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation” (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics) is arguably the single most influential article ever published on housing regulation. It also contains a few large miscalculations. I noticed them a couple weeks ago, and Hsieh and Moretti have graciously confirmed the mistakes via email. Since the gracious admission […]| Econlib
Most skilled American workers are now at least somewhat afraid to criticize fashionable left-wing views. They feel quite fearful to do so on the job, and fairly fearful to do so on social media. One tempting way to quell this high anxiety is to pass new laws against political discrimination. Washington, DC already has such […]| Econlib
If you’re curious about the underlying numbers for my last post, here they are. The table shows every logically possible combination of (a) how well people speak a foreign language and (b) where they learned the foreign language. Percentages should and do sum to 100%. Table: The Degree and Origin of Foreign Language Competence […]| Econlib
Most historians tell stories in which the decisions of a few Great Men drastically change the fates of millions. Prinzip started World War I by assassinating Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Stalin collectivized agriculture, and Hitler ordered the Holocaust. Tolstoy wrote his greatest novel, War and Peace, before any of these events happened. But it’s clear that […]| Econlib
In a Turing Test, a computer tries to pass for human: A human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each emulating human responses. All participants are separated from one another. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed […]| Econlib
Back in 2015, Scott Alexander wrote this reply to my 2006 Rationality and Society piece on the economics of mental illness. I never replied; to be honest, I never read it. The reason, though, is not because I do not respect Scott, but because I respect him too much. I didn’t read his critique because […]| Econlib
I’m homeschooling my elder sons for middle school. On the surface, this makes sense: Homeschooling has been in the libertarian penumbra for decades. If you know my books, however, you should be puzzled. 1. In Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, I argue that the power of nurture is vastly overrated. Genetics, not upbringing, explains […]| Econlib
Scott Alexander got married! Congratulations to the happy couple. And true to form, Scott takes a rationalist approach to the whole experience, starting with details on his search algorithm: [M] recommendation for those of you in the same place I was ten years ago is: accrue micromarriages. Micromarriages come from this post by Chris Olah. They’re […]| Econlib
How do I pick book topics? On reflection, I usually start with what appears to be a big blatant neglected fact. Then I try to discover whether anything in the universe is big enough to explain this alleged fact away. If a laborious search uncovers nothing sufficient, I am left with the seed of a […]| Econlib