habryka Hey Everyone! • As part of working on dialogues over the last few weeks I've asked a bunch of people what kind of conversations they would b…| www.lesswrong.com
At this point it seems basically certain that AI will be a major economic transition. The only real question is how far it goes and how fast. In a previous essay I talked through four scenarios for what the coming few years might look like. In this essay I want to think through how to invest against those scenarios.| www.educatingsilicon.com
Some people (although very far from all people) are worried that AI will wipe out all value in the universe.| thezvi.substack.com
I’m writing a new guide to careers to help AGI go well. Here's a summary of the key messages as they stand.| benjamintodd.substack.com
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Note, To say it up front: None of this, or anything ever on this blog, is investment advice.| thezvi.substack.com
Why do we think that reducing risks from AI is one of the most pressing issues of our time? There are technical safety issues that we believe could, in the worst case, lead to an existential threat to humanity.| 80,000 Hours