Fields of Interest: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Fiscal Policy| www.newyorkfed.org
Richard Crump is a financial research advisor in Capital Markets and a member of the Research Group’s Workforce and Recruiting Committee. His research interests are in Econometric Theory and Financial Economics. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics and an M.A. in Statistics from the University of California at Berkeley, along with a B.S. in Economics from MIT. Prior to graduate school he worked as an Associate in the US Economic Research Group and the Global Markets Research Group at Goldman Sachs.| www.newyorkfed.org
This post uses the New York Fed DSGE model to simulate how interest rates, output, and inflation would have performed had the Fed followed an average inflation targeting (AIT)-type reaction function since the second quarter of 2021, when inflation began to rise—instead of keeping the federal funds rate at the zero lower bound until March 2022, and then raising it aggressively thereafter. The authors show that actual policy was more accommodative in 2021 than implied by the AIT reaction func...| Liberty Street Economics
Although inflation has fallen recently, it remains above target, and the economy continues to expand at a robust pace. Does this resilience imply that monetary policy has been ineffectual? Or does it mean that we haven’t yet observed the full effect of the monetary tightening that has already taken place? This post uses a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to study the behavior of the U.S. economy over the last few years.| Liberty Street Economics
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies. He is also the director of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), a CEPR Research Fellow, coeditor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and chair of the Research Group’s Technology Strategy Committee. Mr. Del Negro's research focuses on the use of general equilibrium models in forecasting and policy analysis. Before joining the Bank, he was a research economist and associate policy ...| www.newyorkfed.org
Fields of interest| www.newyorkfed.org