This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2023.| Liberty Street Economics
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2022. Note that this forecast was produced on February 27, and hence should be viewed as reflecting the state of the economy before the current banking sector turmoil.| Liberty Street Economics
This post discusses the evolution of the short-run natural rate of interest, or short-run r*, over the past year and a half according to the New York Fed DSGE model, and the implications of this evolution for inflation and output projections. We show that, from the model’s perspective, short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. One implication of these findings is that the drag on the economy from recent monetary po...| Liberty Street Economics
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies. He is also the director of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), a CEPR Research Fellow, coeditor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and chair of the Research Group’s Technology Strategy Committee. Mr. Del Negro's research focuses on the use of general equilibrium models in forecasting and policy analysis. Before joining the Bank, he was a research economist and associate policy ...| www.newyorkfed.org