In November, I wrote an analysis arguing that this recession ended in April last year already. Last week, the NBER Recession Dating Committee officially determined the end of the recession. And what did they conclude: The recession ended in April 2020. This makes it the shortest recession on record.| Rangvid’s Blog
Some of the events we have seen during this crisis are so unlikely that we need tricks to calculate their probabilities. This is a journey into the world of very small probabilities and very large numbers. I admit it is somewhat surreal. But it is important as these small-probability events can have long-lasting effects on economic activity.| Rangvid’s Blog
What| Rangvid’s Blog
The corona crisis is unique in many ways, not least with respect to the speed with which economies have started freefalling. Literally, from one day to the next, economies have been shut down, with grave consequences for economic activity. | Rangvid’s Blog
