> “. . . then our people on that time-line went to work with corrective action. Here.” > > He wiped the screen and then began punching combinations.…| www.lesswrong.com
By Daniel Kokotajlo, 2 July 2019 Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and what we learn from it, see this page. For a review of Superforecasting, the...| AI Impacts
Why optimisation is the correct action by definition, and responses to common objections and mistakes| Neel Nanda
An important mental distinction underlying many previous posts| Neel Nanda
The Skill of Noticing Emotions (Thanks to Eli Tyre and Luke Raskopf for helping teach me the technique. And thanks to Nora Ammann, Fin Moorhouse, Ben…| www.lesswrong.com