Link: http://investorfieldguide.com/livermore/ About Jesse: Jesse Livermore is a pseudonym for the financial blogger behind philosophicaleconomics.com. 3 Methods for Drawing Meaningful Inference Intuition Benefit: Low cost and readily accessible Costs Downside is noisy especially in ‘wicked’ learning environments Not transparent Traders are high in ‘cognitive reflection’ and stronger intuition Careful deliberation is a hallmark. Studies have … Continue reading Notes from Invest Like...| Party at the Moontower
The setup You invest in 2 coins every week for the next 1000 weeks (19.2 yrs) These coins pay a return each week Every 4 weeks, you rebalance wealth equally between the 2 coins Coins have an expected edge of 10% Simulation is run 10,000x Assume no transaction costs Individual Coin Payouts Coin Win Payout … Continue reading Lesson from coin flip investing →| Party at the Moontower
The equity premium puzzle has troubled economists for over 30 years. I’ve solved it, and in the process identified a major flaw with investment theory. Put simply, the puzzle is: “Equities (stocks) have provided a real return of about 7% for the last 100 years. The risk-free rate (treasury bills) has provided about 1% of…| breakingthemarket.com
The arithmetic behind how increased volatility reduces average compounded returns| Moontower Blog
Is it possible that factors overexplain excess performance?| Moontower Blog