Reconciliation Recommendations of the House Committee on Education and Workforce | Congressional Budget Office
As ordered reported on April 29, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
As ordered reported on April 29, 2025| Congressional Budget Office
We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 22.9 percent in 30 years. GDP decreases by 3.6 percent, and wages fall by 2.9 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Several provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire (“sunset”) by the end of 2025. We estimate that permanently extending the TCJA would increase primary deficits by $4.0 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis and by $3.83 trillion including economic feedbac| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We analyze new data from the US Treasury to examine historical revenue effects of TCJA’s international corporate tax provisions. We also provide updated conventional estimates to assess the revenue impact of scheduled 2026 rate increases on foreign income of US corporations and assess several propos| Penn Wharton Budget Model
In a July 2023 brief , we estimated that President Biden’s SAVE plan would incur a budgetary cost ranging from $391 to $559 billion over the next ten-year budget window, with a medium estimate of $475 billion. Tables 1a and 1b below present updates of our cost estimate, which includes a shift in th| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM introduces a new measure of distribution that corrects numerous deficiencies in existing distributional measures that are commonly used to evaluate policy analysis.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that incorporating the Trump administration’s major tax proposals into the FY2025 House budget reconciliation would require that the provisions mostly sunset by December 31, 2033. Even so, primary deficits would increase by $5.1 trillion before economic effects and by $4.9 trillion after| Penn Wharton Budget Model
