It’s enormously tempting to imagine, at bubble highs, that glorious backward-looking returns, far greater than those previously implied by valuations, demonstrate that historical standards of value are outdated and obsolete. In 1934, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd described the mood surrounding the 1929 market peak, observing that investors had abandoned their attention to valuations because 'the records of the past were proving an undependable guide to investment.' For the moment, neither ...| Hussman Funds
On Friday December 6th, the U.S. stock market pushed to the most extreme level of valuation in U.S. history, based on the measures that we find best-correlated with subsequent S&P 500 total returns, as well as the depth of subsequent losses over the completion of market cycles across a century of data. That’s not a forecast. Rather, it’s a statement about current, measurable, observable market conditions.| Hussman Funds
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks. This is true for nearly every process, including economic growth and stock market returns.| Hussman Funds
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.| Hussman Funds
Archived commentary is historical in nature and should not be assumed to reflect the current investment outlook or investment practices of the Hussman Funds.| Hussman Funds
It's the wrong question to ask, "How can we somehow force internals to look like trend-following measures that aren't as reliable across history?" Happily, abandoning that question frees us to ask a better question. Once one accepts that internals are, in fact, behaving as intended, the question becomes: "How can we benefit during bearish conditions when valuations and internals validly hold us to a defensive outlook, yet obvious but less reliable trend-following measures remain favorable?" A...| Hussman Funds
Prospectus| funddocs.filepoint.com
September 4, 2017Valuations, Sufficient Statistics, and Breathtaking Risks| www.hussmanfunds.com
May 18, 2015 The "New Era" is an Old Story (and introducing Market Cap/GVA) | www.hussmanfunds.com
May 5, 2014 Cahm Viss Me Eef You Vahn to Live | www.hussmanfunds.com
The stock market presently stands at valuation extremes matched only twice in U.S. financial history: the week ended December 31, 2021, and the week ended August 26, 1929. Meanwhile, despite all the bluster about technological improvements driving durable increases in corporate profitability over time, the fact is that corporate profit margins before interest and taxes have hovered around the same level for 75 years.| Hussman Funds