This post presents an updated estimate of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for December 2022. The estimates are obtained by the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT), a model we introduced on Liberty Street Economics last year and covered most recently in a January post. The MCT is a dynamic factor model estimated on monthly data for the seventeen major sectors of the PCE price index. It decomposes each sector’s inflation as the sum o...| Liberty Street Economics
Inflationary pressures—their determinants and evolution—continue to dominate policy discussions. In this post, we provide a simple framework to analyze the determinants of different measures of inflation and use it to lay out a risk-scenario analysis. We find that global supply factors captured by the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) are strongly associated with inflationary developments measured by the producer price index (PPI) and by the c0nsumer price index ...| Liberty Street Economics
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2022.| Liberty Street Economics
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2022. Note that this forecast was produced on February 27, and hence should be viewed as reflecting the state of the economy before the current banking sector turmoil.| Liberty Street Economics
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. The New York Fed DSGE Model is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).| www.newyorkfed.org
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies. He is also the director of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), a CEPR Research Fellow, coeditor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and chair of the Research Group’s Technology Strategy Committee. Mr. Del Negro's research focuses on the use of general equilibrium models in forecasting and policy analysis. Before joining the Bank, he was a research economist and associate policy ...| www.newyorkfed.org
