The ‘some guy’ phenomenon is my observation that the best people in the world at a given task or skill are unknown or random people. Instead of only famous people or credentialed experts, breakthroughs are being made by nobodies.| Grey Enlightenment
As I discuss in the July 2022 post “Fixing the Expertise Misallocation Problem“, having a large social media following and a lot of media coverage or clout is a poor predictor of “useful, actionable advice” or accuracy. It’s as if those who have the most followers, visibility, or status who are the least effective at their jobs, or give the worst advice, or recommend the worst investments. There is a problem in which society systematically promotes people who are the least competen...| Grey Enlightenment
From Richard Hanania, Government Science and the Prestige Economy.| greyenlightenment.com
Here are my thoughts about the Iran situation| Grey Enlightenment
It’s another morning of the familiar sight of bombed-out buildings and smoke. My prediction is there will be no productive negotiations between Iran, Israel, and the US. The way these conflicts have typically resolved is Iran spontaneously relenting, typically for 9-12 months, until resuming. Iran initially attacked Israel in April 2024, paused until August, and resumed in June 2025. (I’m guessing according to Iran’s LinkedIn, “nuclear scientists wanted” or “generals wanted” pos...| Grey Enlightenment
I saw this post by Jeremiah Johnson, “Persistence Beats Talent: And how to think about achieving success.”| Grey Enlightenment
Polymarket as of 6/17/2025 is giving a 58% chance of “US military action against Iran before July,” where this is defined as:| Grey Enlightenment
A recurring complaint I have seen by Richard Hanania and others on the center/middle-right is that the tech-right, who are otherwise intelligent, come off as dull, uniformed or intellectually-incurious about politics: | Grey Enlightenment
The news cycle is moving so fast. Just 2 days ago, the big story was riots and the plane crash. Now it’s Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. This is being framed as Israel thwarting Trump’s attempts at peace talks or even as the prelude to world war. | Grey Enlightenment
It looks like I was right again on multiple counts. First, I predicted that stocks would quickly recover from tariff-related losses and to buy the dips. Indeed, the Nasdaq has recovered all its losses and is within striking distance of a new high: | Grey Enlightenment