We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how early-2025 AI tools affect the productivity of experienced open-source developers working on their own repositories. Surprisingly, we find that when developers use AI tools, they take 19% longer than without—AI makes them slower. We view this result as a snapshot of early-2025 AI capabilities in one relevant setting; as these systems continue to rapidly evolve, we plan on continuing to use this methodology to help estimate AI ...| metr.org
The largest AI labs are racing to build multi-gigawatt-scale datacenters, and stressing our century-old power grid to an unprecedented extent. Not only is the scale massive, but AI training wo…| SemiAnalysis
Baumol's disease, regulatory resistance, and the O-ring problem| Silicon Continent
LLMs were invented in four major developments... all of which were datasets| blog.jxmo.io
Saffron Huang on human agency in AI forecasting| joinreboot.org
Continual learning is a huge bottleneck| www.dwarkesh.com
Misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas accelerating AI progress| www.dwarkesh.com
AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.| ai-2027.com
(This piece is my year in review; here’s my letter from 2019) I. Inspiration It’s difficult to identify a great economic reason to explore space. There are easier ways to extract minerals, doing anything at all is terribly expensive, and Mars is a hard place to make a living. The benefits of space exploration are […] The post 2020 letter appeared first on Dan Wang.| Dan Wang
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Ever wondered what the average salary is for workers of your age? We’ve used government research from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), alongside d| Forbes Advisor UK
A collection of the best technical, social, and economic arguments Humans have a good track record of innovation. The mechanization of agriculture, steam engines, electricity, modern medicine, computers, and the internet—these technologies radically changed the world. Still, the trend growth rate of GDP per capita in the world's frontier| The Gradient