The House of Representative is considering legislation that would retroactively double the cap on deductions for state and local taxes (SALT) for married filers for just 2023, which PWBM previously estimated would cost $12 billion. This brief examines the cost of cap increases if enacted for tax yea| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Several provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire (“sunset”) by the end of 2025. We estimate that permanently extending the TCJA would increase primary deficits by $4.0 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis and by $3.83 trillion including economic feedbac| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We analyze new data from the US Treasury to examine historical revenue effects of TCJA’s international corporate tax provisions. We also provide updated conventional estimates to assess the revenue impact of scheduled 2026 rate increases on foreign income of US corporations and assess several propos| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PWBM introduces a new measure of distribution that corrects numerous deficiencies in existing distributional measures that are commonly used to evaluate policy analysis.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits reduces incentives to save and work while increasing federal debt. Wages and GDP fall over time. The policy primarily benefits high-income households nearing or in retirement while harming households under thirty and all future generations across the ent| Penn Wharton Budget Model
