A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models
Disclaimers:| titotal.substack.com
Everyone’s been talking about it. JD Vance read it. What does it actually tell us?| garymarcus.substack.com
AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.| ai-2027.com
We’re releasing RE-Bench, a new benchmark for measuring the performance of humans and frontier model agents on ML research engineering tasks. We also share data from 71 human expert attempts and results for Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet and OpenAI’s o1-preview, including full transcripts of all runs.| metr.org
Exaggerating the risks (Part 17: Biorisk, taking stock)| Reflective altruism
Many effective altruists think that humanity faces high levels of existential risk. In this series, I look at some places where the risks may have been exaggerated.| Reflective altruism
