I assess the plausibility of the forecasts in the FOMC’s recently released Summary of Economic Projections through the lens of a simple macroeconomic model. The exercise is similar to previous ones…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
How plausible are the Fed’s economic projections? In this post, I take a look at the Federal Open Market Committee’s recent Summary of Economic Projections through the lens of a simple economic mod…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
My blog post from last March, How Tight Is the Labor Market?, argued that the unusually high level of job openings meant that the natural rate of unemployment was likely higher than pre-Covid. Rela…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
Inflation is currently much higher than it was pre-Covid: as of August 2022, the twelve-month change in the prices of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (core PCE) was 4.9&…| John Roberts Macroeconomics
