AI's biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.| epochai.substack.com
Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled, and evolved in ways humans simply can't.| www.dwarkesh.com
AI companies are increasingly using AI systems to accelerate AI research and development. Today’s AI systems help researchers write code, analyze research papers, and generate training data. Future systems could be significantly more capable – potentially automating the entire AI development cycle from formulating research questions and designing experiments to implementing, testing, and refining new AI systems. We argue that such systems could trigger a runaway feedback loop in which the...| Forethought
Discussions about AI progress often center on the importance of compute scaling and algorithmic improvements to achieve new capabilities, and there is evidence that AI systems are beginning to contribute to AI progress. This paper explores what might happen to the pace of progress in a scenario where AI systems could fully automate AI research. We present insights from interviews with AI researchers from leading AI companies to explore how this scenario would alter the pace of algorithmic pro...| Forethought
AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.| ai-2027.com
This is Part 0 of a four-part report — see links to Part 1. Part 2. Part 3, and a folder with more materials. Abstract In the next few decades we may develop AI that can automate ~all cognitive tasks and dramatically transform the world. By contrast, today the capabilities and impact of AI are much […]| Open Philanthropy
