Exploring how the leading AI country could achieve economic dominance through superexponential growth dynamics. Analysis of trade, technological diffusion, and space resource scenarios that could enable one nation to control >99% of global output post-AGI.| Forethought
Once AI can automate human labour, *physical* capabilities could grow explosively. Sufficiently advanced robotics could create a feedback loop where automated robot factories build more and better robot factories which build more and better robot factories. In this piece, we examine three stages of an **industrial explosion**: AI-directed human labour, fully automated physical labour, and nanotechnology. An industrial explosion would arise in a world which already has greatly increased cognit...| Forethought
Our new article explores whether deployment of advanced AI systems could lead to growth rates ten times higher than those of today’s frontier economies.| Epoch AI
AI companies are increasingly using AI systems to accelerate AI research and development. Today’s AI systems help researchers write code, analyze research papers, and generate training data. Future systems could be significantly more capable – potentially automating the entire AI development cycle from formulating research questions and designing experiments to implementing, testing, and refining new AI systems. We argue that such systems could trigger a runaway feedback loop in which the...| Forethought
Once AI systems can design and build even more capable AI systems, we could see an *intelligence explosion*, where AI capabilities rapidly increase to well past human performance. The classic intelligence explosion scenario involves a feedback loop where AI improves AI software. But AI could also improve other inputs to AI development. This paper analyses three feedback loops in AI development: software, chip technology, and chip production. These could drive three types of intelligence explo...| Forethought
The development of AI that is more broadly capable than humans will create a new and serious threat: *AI-enabled coups*. An AI-enabled coup could be staged by a very small group, or just a single person, and could occur even in established democracies. Sufficiently advanced AI will introduce three novel dynamics that significantly increase coup risk. Firstly, military and government leaders could fully replace human personnel with AI systems that are *singularly loyal* to them, eliminating th...| Forethought
This report evaluates the likelihood of ‘explosive growth’, meaning > 30% annual growth of gross world product (GWP), occurring by 2100. Although frontier GDP/capita growth has been constant for 150 years, over the last 10,000 years GWP growth has accelerated significantly. Endogenous growth theory, together with the empirical fact of the demographic transition, can explain […]| Open Philanthropy
A conversation about what happens to the economy when intelligence becomes too cheap to meter.| asteriskmag.com