We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 22.9 percent in 30 years. GDP decreases by 3.6 percent, and wages fall by 2.9 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate that incorporating the Trump administration’s major tax proposals into the FY2025 House budget reconciliation would require that the provisions mostly sunset by December 31, 2033. Even so, primary deficits would increase by $5.1 trillion before economic effects and by $4.9 trillion after| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.7 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.1 trillion) than the conventional.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits reduces incentives to save and work while increasing federal debt. Wages and GDP fall over time. The policy primarily benefits high-income households nearing or in retirement while harming households under thirty and all future generations across the ent| Penn Wharton Budget Model
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%. A middle-income household faces a $58K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%| Penn Wharton Budget Model
