After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged through 2021. This post analyzes the drivers of these developments through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. Its main finding is that the recent rise in inflation is mostly accounted for by a large cost-push shock that occurred in the second quarter of 2021 and whose inflationary effects persist today. Based on the model’s reading of historical data, this ...| Liberty Street Economics
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to develop approaches and ideas for answering the most pressing questions in the fields of macroeconomics and applied econometrics.| www.newyorkfed.org
U.S. inflation has surged as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 recession. This phenomenon has not been confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies albeit not with the same intensity. In this post, we draw from the current international experiences to provide an assessment of the drivers of U.S. inflation. In particular, we exploit the link among different measures of inflation at the country level and a number of global supply ...| Liberty Street Economics
The DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. The New York Fed DSGE Model is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).| www.newyorkfed.org
Marco Del Negro is an economic research advisor in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies. He is also the director of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), a CEPR Research Fellow, coeditor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and chair of the Research Group’s Technology Strategy Committee. Mr. Del Negro's research focuses on the use of general equilibrium models in forecasting and policy analysis. Before joining the Bank, he was a research economist and associate policy ...| www.newyorkfed.org
