Why do real-money markets have Biden's odds so much lower than us? [Resolves N/A in one week, 500 mana to best answer] | Manifold
Resolved MKT. Manifold thinks Biden is 90% likely to be the Democratic Party nominee. Metaculus says it's 94%. Meanwhile, Polymarket thinks this is only 78% likely. Other real-money markets are similarly low, with ElectionBettingOdds's average putting it at 71.4%. In the 538 Politics Podcast this week, the 538 crew mostly agreed with current prediction market prices on other 2024 questions but universally agreed that Biden's chances were much higher than 78%. Nathaniel Rakich, who I might tru...| Manifold
