Exaggerating the risks (Part 20: AI 2027 timelines forecast, benchmarks and gaps) - Reflective altruism
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.| Reflective altruism
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.| Reflective altruism
AI 2027 predicts generally superintelligent AIs in 2028. This supplement introduces our framework for thinking about the progression from AIs that are superhuman coders to generally superintelligent, and justifies why we think it's plausible the progression would take about 1 year.| ai-2027.com
The AI 2027 report relies on two models of AI timelines. The first timelines model largely bakes hyperbolic growth into the model structure. The post Exaggerating the risks (Part 19: AI 2027 timelines forecast, time horizon extension) appeared first on Reflective altruism.| Reflective altruism
This post introduces the AI 2027 report.| Reflective altruism
AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.| ai-2027.com
This is Part 0 of a four-part report — see links to Part 1. Part 2. Part 3, and a folder with more materials. Abstract In the next few decades we may develop AI that can automate ~all cognitive tasks and dramatically transform the world. By contrast, today the capabilities and impact of AI are much […]| Open Philanthropy
Exaggerating the risks (Part 17: Biorisk, taking stock)| Reflective altruism
Many effective altruists think that humanity faces high levels of existential risk. In this series, I look at some places where the risks may have been exaggerated.| Reflective altruism
