GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? In this post, I’ll forecast the properties of large pretrained ML systems in 2030.| Bounded Regret
I’ve previously argued that machine learning systems often exhibit emergent capabilities, and that these capabilities could lead to unintended negative consequences. But how can we reason concretely about these consequences?| Bounded Regret
In 1972, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Philip Anderson wrote the essay " More Is Different [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/177/4047/393]". In it, he argues that quantitative changes can lead to qualitatively different and unexpected phenomena. While he focused on physics, one can find many examples of More is| Bounded Regret