Well-framed problems are good strategies for coordinating innovative action across diverse and unexpected domains. What does "well-framed" mean? A well-framed problem balances between freedom (defining the problem broadly to increase the number of possible solutions) and useful constraint (being usefully clear about un/acceptable tradeoffs potential solutions are allowed to make).| uncertaintymindset.substack.com
This issue is about design principles for good, viably sneaky experiments. Good experiments are an appropriate way to act when faced with both uncertainty and an uncertainty-averse organization. At a minimum, a good experiment must have a hypothesis about a mechanism that the experiment will investigate, an actionable insight if the hypothesis is supported, and an actionable insight even if the hypothesis is not supported. A good experiment can be made easier for an uncertainty-averse organiz...| uncertaintymindset.substack.com
tl;dr: This post is about five ways we might not-know about the value of outcomes. This is the reading for the eighth episode in my series of| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: This post is about the five ways we might not-know about the relationships between actions and outcomes — in other words, five types of| vaughntan.org
Warning: Ideas and analysis in this post are still being baked. This is the reading for the 22/6/2023 discussion that’s part of my monthly| vaughntan.org
This essay is different from the ones that came before it in this series on aspects of not-knowing. The main difference is that I’m very actively| vaughntan.org
This is a summary of the fifth session in the InterIntellect series on not-knowing, which happened on 18 May 2023. Upcoming: “Actions and results,”| vaughntan.org
This issue is about sensing when something has an inside which is coherent with its outside. It ranges over the Golden Triangle (of the Luberon), stone walls in New England, the Auvergne, and the south of France, crappy particleboard furniture, and the genesis for my current preoccupation with not-knowing.| uncertaintymindset.substack.com
tl;dr: What it means to be human is (and should be) a moving target. Lots of people are excited that we are on the cusp of building machines that| vaughntan.org
What follows is an introduction to not-knowing (first published in my Substack newsletter), which covers The origin story for the discussion series| vaughntan.org
tl;dr: This article argues that thinking clearly about risk is essential to making good decisions and achieving good outcomes in situations of| vaughntan.org