The recent 'everything bubble' has taken its dear sweet time to collapse. Even though the S&P 500 remains down from its early 2022 peak, and 30-year Treasury bonds have lost over half their value since early 2020, the market has maintained the appearance of 'resilience.' Yet there need not be a proportional relationship between the size of the last grain of sand, the length of the last straw, or the weight of the landing butterfly, and the extent of the catastrophe they provoke.| Hussman Funds
The greater the misalignment between financial quantities and economic quantities, the more distorted and grotesque the whole picture becomes, particularly if nobody carefully connects the dots. Unfortunately, investors and policy makers repeatedly insist on learning that the hard way.| Hussman Funds
One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. Internal divergences, the lowest prospective market returns in U.S. history, and why not-QE really is not QE.| Hussman Funds
Archived commentary is historical in nature and should not be assumed to reflect the current investment outlook or investment practices of the Hussman Funds.| Hussman Funds
Departures from systematic monetary policy distort behavior in ways that cause misalignments between financial quantities and real economic quantities, and as a result, they invariably produce damage as the two are ultimately realigned.| Hussman Funds
Record stock prices here are the product of a) record valuation multiples that have been inflated by a decade of zero interest rate policy, times b) record earnings that embed distorted profit margins inflated by trillions of dollars of temporary deficit spending. Investors are paying top dollar for top dollar.| Hussman Funds
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the months of peaks and troughs of economic activity. Expansions are the periods between a trough and a peak; recessions are the periods between a peak and a trough. By convention, the NBER classifies the peak month as the last month of the expansion and the trough month as the last month of the recession. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief....| NBER
