Everything is moving so fast that nobody can say with confidence exactly what will or won’t happen, but a reminder of each side’s interests as their policymakers conceive them to be can help obtain a better idea of how likely certain scenarios might be.| korybko.substack.com
Considering that the latest surveys revealed overwhelming opposition to a conventional Polish intervention in Ukraine and overwhelming support for the farmers’ protests, Tusk would be making an epic mistake if convinced Duda to order a conventional intervention as a distraction from the nationwide protests.| korybko.substack.com
While a sizeable minority of the population conforms with the stereotype of Poles being gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a roughly equal minority has soured on it, while Poles as a whole are still moderately pro-Ukrainian likely due to socio-cultural and historical factors.| korybko.substack.com
Although they’re playing a dangerous game of nuclear chicken with Russia, NATO is still exercising a degree of self-restraint, albeit solely due to its self-interest and not out of any so-called “responsibility”.| korybko.substack.com
This is the US’ reward to Poland for replacing its conservative-nationalist government with a liberal-globalist one and then comprehensively subordinating itself to Germany.| korybko.substack.com
