From Diet Woke to Brat Summer to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯| www.natesilver.net
Part 1 of a 3-part autopsy on the Harris campaign. Plus, a GiveDirectly fundraiser!| www.natesilver.net
My 7 tips for a successful Substack.| www.natesilver.net
And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.| www.natesilver.net
Explaining the gap between Harris’s favorability ratings and the head-to-head polls.| www.natesilver.net
Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.| www.natesilver.net
As the presidential race finishes out the last two weeks, it’s clearly a close race. In the past I have recommended prediction markets, and right now these are giving Trump about 60% odds. Th…| Economist Writing Every Day
Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.| www.natesilver.net
Ray Fair at Yale runs one of the oldest models to use economic data to predict US election results. It predicts vote shares for President and the US House as a function of real GDP growth during th…| Economist Writing Every Day
*Statistically* biased, we mean. A guide to house effects in the Silver Bulletin model.| www.natesilver.net
There’s one line of attack that could cost Democrats the presidency.| Vox
It’s the Electoral College.| www.natesilver.net
If the popular vote is close, Trump will probably win the election.| www.natesilver.net
The tale of the tape.| www.natesilver.net
She's good at this. And her speech was a shift away from Clintonian politics — and from wokeness.| www.natesilver.net
You can like the president or his policies. But his campaign was a disaster. And he didn't just drop out — he lost.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, book events and newsletter pricing.| www.natesilver.net
Plus, we’re launching a new subscriber Chat platform. And: hardcover or audiobook?| www.natesilver.net
Challenger Mode has been working for her. But running as the frontrunner can be harder.| www.natesilver.net
My new book, On the Edge, is out today! Here's everything you need to know about it.| www.natesilver.net
Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position.| www.natesilver.net
Patriotism, Realistic Optimism, and Grace.| www.welcomestack.org
Eight states shift towards the Republicans, and Donald Trump is now favored to win 268 electoral votes - two short of the 270 needed to win.| Elections Daily
Strong polling for presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris moves four states to the left, bringing the election back to a dead heat.| Elections Daily
Forecasts that exist in the context of all that came before them| tellingthefuture.substack.com
For instance, why it so different from 538?| www.natesilver.net
Or maybe he’s Larry Bird. But he’s definitely among the 10 best players of all-time.| www.natesilver.net
The rules may be different when it’s a sprint and not a marathon.| www.natesilver.net
So far, the vice president is still coming out ahead.| www.natesilver.net
Kamala Harris is giving Democrats the race that Joe Biden couldn’t.| www.natesilver.net
Do home-state effects matter?| www.natesilver.net
Data point #2496 that Trump does not understand world politics.| danieldrezner.substack.com
It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.| www.natesilver.net
They're probably still underdogs against Trump, but Biden dropping out improves their odds.| www.natesilver.net
But Democrats probably need a better messenger than Biden.| www.natesilver.net
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.| www.natesilver.net
The economic portions of his nomination acceptance speech made no sense, Like, at all.| danieldrezner.substack.com
It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.| www.natesilver.net
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.| www.natesilver.net
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.| www.natesilver.net
There aren’t many changes from 2020 — but here are the exceptions.| www.natesilver.net
Biden and Trump on CNN! Me and my whiskey in my living room watching it!| danieldrezner.substack.com
Only little babies can't admit when they're in trouble.| www.calmdownben.com
