As Donald Trump prepares to return to the U.S. presidency, Iran’s nuclear program will factor prominently, as it did during his former term, in U.S. strategy to address the Iranian threat to regional stability and U.S. allies throughout the region. Yet, the legacy of the first Trump administration’s withdrawal from the delicately crafted 2015 multilateral […]| The Soufan Center
During a press briefing last week, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder stated: “The United States has confirmed reports that Iran has transferred shipments of Fath 360 close-range ballistic missiles to Russia, which we assess could employ them within weeks against Ukraine, leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians.” He […]| The Soufan Center
Early Sunday morning in Syria, as rebel factions closed in on Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad fled the country for Russia, signaling a seismic shift in the Middle East’s political landscape. Rebel fighters declared an end to Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule, which followed a 30-year reign of his father, Hafez al-Assad. Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the head […]| The Soufan Center
President Trump and his foreign policy aides are divided over how to address Iran’s advancing nuclear program. The issue has become progressively more acute – for the United States and particularly for Israel, which identifies Iran’s nuclear program as an “existential threat” – as Iran assembles the fissile material and knowledge it would need to […]| The Soufan Center
U.S., Israeli, and European concerns over Iran’s advancing nuclear program have brought the Iran file to a top position on the Trump administration’s national security agenda. Iran’s nuclear advances are testing Trump’s long-stated intent to avoid sparking a significant new regional war. Iran’s nuclear program is assessed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as […]| The Soufan Center
Israeli Security Forces confirmed yesterday that Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas and de-facto ruler of Gaza, was killed in combat on Wednesday during an ambush by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Rafah. Sinwar’s death marks a significant victory for Israel, especially given his role in orchestrating the brutal October 7 attacks on Israel. It […]| The Soufan Center
In the year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel and Iran have moved beyond their decade-long “shadow war” of tit-for-tat intelligence operations against each other’s interests to direct conflict bordering on sustained, all-out war. As a consequence, Iranian and Israeli leaders are each searching for “escalation dominance” against the other. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin […]| The Soufan Center
In September 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser (NSA) Jake Sullivan submitted an article for publication in Foreign Affairs magazine, arguing the Middle East region “was quieter than it has been for decades.” A few weeks later, Hamas’ incursion into Israel and its subsequent permutations have upended virtually all the assumptions and assessments that factored into […]| The Soufan Center
Conventional wisdom holds that Iran’s domestic and national security policies will not be altered by the sudden death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19 – either before the June 28 special election to replace Raisi, or during subsequent leadership competitions thereafter.| The Soufan Center
