Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I've updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and| Discipline Funds
Here are three things I am thinking about that are really only one thing, of course. 1) Why Tariffs are Bad. I got back into making YouTube videos this weekend (click here for the link). This time I touched| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Lots of Macro Thoughts. I did an interview with the guys over at Excess Returns this week. We covered a ton of ground including the broader macro outlook, the impact of tariffs,| Discipline Funds
As I write this the US stock market is down -2.5% on the day. It's down about -8.5% from its peak just a few weeks ago. Then again, it's up 11% over the last year, 38% over three years and 110% over 5 years. This is what the stock market does. Over long| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Lifetime of Stocks is...Shrinking. I loved this chart from Bank of America which shows the average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Is the USA Going BANKRUPT? I joined Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill last week to discuss the never-ending controversy over the US national debt and the day| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response to the previous Friday’s job report, the market ended the week…flat. If| Discipline Funds
Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and odds of a 50 bps cut went up to 75%. JP Morgan is calling for 50 bps cuts| Discipline Funds
One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes famously said, "in the long-run we are all dead" and so are all fiat currencies. IN THE| Discipline Funds
Thursday's CPI report was a big downside surprise as more signs of disinflation appeared across the economy. Core CPI rose 0.06% in June which brought the annualized rate to 3.27%. That's the lowest rate since 2021. The big driver in the downside miss was shelter, which finally appears to be catching up to| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) All About Jobs. In an interview with Schwab earlier last week I said that the future path of Fed policy will be determined more so by employment reports and not inflation reports.| Discipline Funds
