Sorry for the radio silence here. My very final book edits are due June 30th so I've been burning the midnight oil making sure all the details are perfect. I've now read my own 250 page book about 100 times so if anyone asks me how many books I read this year I| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I've updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and| Discipline Funds
Here are three things I am thinking about that are really only one thing, of course. 1) Why Tariffs are Bad. I got back into making YouTube videos this weekend (click here for the link). This time I touched| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Lots of Macro Thoughts. I did an interview with the guys over at Excess Returns this week. We covered a ton of ground including the broader macro outlook, the impact of tariffs,| Discipline Funds
As I write this the US stock market is down -2.5% on the day. It's down about -8.5% from its peak just a few weeks ago. Then again, it's up 11% over the last year, 38% over three years and 110% over 5 years. This is what the stock market does. Over long| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Lifetime of Stocks is...Shrinking. I loved this chart from Bank of America which shows the average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Is the USA Going BANKRUPT? I joined Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill last week to discuss the never-ending controversy over the US national debt and the day| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response to the previous Friday’s job report, the market ended the week…flat. If| Discipline Funds
Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and odds of a 50 bps cut went up to 75%. JP Morgan is calling for 50 bps cuts| Discipline Funds
One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes famously said, "in the long-run we are all dead" and so are all fiat currencies. IN THE| Discipline Funds
Thursday's CPI report was a big downside surprise as more signs of disinflation appeared across the economy. Core CPI rose 0.06% in June which brought the annualized rate to 3.27%. That's the lowest rate since 2021. The big driver in the downside miss was shelter, which finally appears to be catching up to| Discipline Funds
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) All About Jobs. In an interview with Schwab earlier last week I said that the future path of Fed policy will be determined more so by employment reports and not inflation reports.| Discipline Funds