Even if blessed with superpowers, in particular, the one of printing infinite money, the Federal Reserve is ultimately a “Bank” and like every superhero has a weak spot like Kryptonite for Superman. Being a “Bank”, hence required to remain solvent, is paradoxically the #FED’s weakness. Let me explain: 1 –...| JustDario
What a clown show the US market has become. Please forgive me, but I cannot find any better words to describe it. Before the US #CPI came out, I wrote these words: “Once data is out and is within the range of expectations (even if “hot”), algorithms start dumping the...| JustDario
The #Nikkei just broke 40,000 and yet no one in #Japan is celebrating, literally speaking. Why? The purchasing power of $JPY literally fell through the floor in the past 30 years as a result of endless (and reckless) nonstop money printing. As I wrote almost 5 months ago on X:...| JustDario
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank...| JustDario
It’s no mystery anymore. What matters to low-popularity politicians in charge of government and seeking reelection is a #bullish #stockmarket until after the election date. From #Japan to the #US, from the #UK to #Germany, what do all of them have in common? The government in charge is dealing with...| JustDario
In about 24 hours, the “Bank Term Funding Programme”, the infamous #BTFP, will be history. There should not have been any surprise about this if it wasn’t for the fact the banking situation today is much worse than it was one year ago when the #BTFP was launched. How dire...| JustDario
What are the differences between #Bitcoin and #Gold? If you put aside any personal views and stick with their pure characteristics, the two are not truly different from a monetary perspective: 1 – Both have limited supply, but at the same time, they can be divided into very minuscule units....| JustDario
The text discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation, challenging the notion that central banks have successfully tamed it. Recent UK inflation data for December suggests a possible upward trend, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans. Bond traders are adjusting their bets, and the author predicts a likely rise in interest rates unless a significant event disrupts the current pattern. The impending maturity of substantial debt in 2024 adds pressure...| JustDario
At the European Central Bank (#ECB), they are so adamant about cutting rates lately that they are barely sparing a single day to remind markets about it (The time is ripe to cut interest rates next week, European Central Bank’s Rehn says). But, why such a rush when, even according...| JustDario
First of all, who the hell is the latest counterpart added to the #FED Standing Repo Facility: “Norinchukin Bank”? “Officially,” it is a Cooperative Bank owned by Japanese agricultural, fishery, forestry cooperatives in #Japan. Yes, that’s right, an “agricultural” bank from Japan got a seat at the #FED big boys...| JustDario
During 2023, we have discussed so often how (ridiculously insolvent) banks have made extensive use of “Hold To Maturity” accounting to the point that it is now more appropriate to rename it “Hide Till Maturity” (TwitterX). Dump any asset with a market value implying a steep loss in the HTM...| JustDario
Two weeks ago, traders assigned a 60% probability to a FED emergency rate cut, potentially up to 75 basis points. Let me stress this point: an emergency rate cut isn’t an ordinary one. What was the “emergency” that required such a swift and powerful action from the FED two weeks...| JustDario
First of all, let’s do a quick recap of how we got here: At this point, something very important happens. On the 30th of July, right after US stocks opened for cash trading, someone very big was clearly being margin called and liquidated as I warned in this post here...| JustDario
Yesterday, I spent the evening with a good old friend, now a senior manager in a big financial firm, whom I will label as “Manager X” going forward. I believe some parts of our conversation will be interesting to everyone, my summary below 🙏🏻 1 – Why is there no...| JustDario
This week we are going to have such a parade of central bank decisions on the menu: #RBA, #BOJ, #FOMC, #BOE, and #SNB 😵💫 All eyes will surely be on the #BOJ and the #FOMC. I do expect they will play “good cop bad cop” with market emotions. 🤭 The...| JustDario
Late last year, the #FED quietly added a very unique institution to its Standing REPO Facility: #Norinchukin Bank. Like every other news against the MSM narrative, this event was quickly brushed away from public attention. In the article “WHY IS THE FED PREPARING TO BAIL OUT A JAPANESE BANK? BECAUSE...| JustDario
When you’ve spent enough time trading inside a bank and watching markets for hours a day, in my case I traded my first stock when I was 11, sometimes you’re able to spot if something suddenly starts behaving weirdly. This is exactly what happened with Morgan Stanley ($MS) in the...| JustDario
I started the year writing about how in 2024 the practice used by banks of hiding their losses in Hold to Maturity books (hence “hide till maturity”) would have come to an end [Post Below] . However, I was wrong there, because I wrote this: “As I explained in a...| JustDario
Last week, the European Central Bank (#ECB) didn’t make a policy mistake. As we discussed in “AFTER JAPAN, NOW IT’S EUROPE’S TURN TO SACRIFICE ITSELF TO KEEP THE US MARKET BUBBLE ALIVE UNTIL THE ELECTIONS”, they simply acted to serve the US Federal Reserve (#FED) interests. The market now expects...| JustDario
Let’s give a round of applause to Jerome Burns (aka Jerome Powell) for his incredible confidence in saying things like “#inflation is showing some seasonality that doesn’t change its downward trend”. First of all, can someone remind him that what he has been commenting on in the last 6 years...| JustDario
Even if everything is “back to normal” and everyone is behaving as if the events from two weeks ago were just a bad nightmare, with the VIX free-falling in a way never seen before (from 66 below 18 in 7 trading days, while every time before it took months to...| JustDario
On 14 October 2008, the BOJ entered the bailout arena in full force with its “Introduction of Measures regarding Money Market Operations to Ensure Stability in Financial Markets.” Among the four “temporary” initiatives announced, the last one was the most crucial one… and remains the most crucial one today. “Expansion...| JustDario
WELLS FARGO – A CASE OF TOO MUCH WINDOW DRESSING AND TOO LITTLE COLLATERAL?| JustDario
While digging into #BAC‘s Q4-23 financial statements, I couldn’t help but wonder if they had lost their minds during the last three months of 2023. No, I am not referring to the “press release” or the “presentation,” which are usually prepared to “feed” the media rather than provide transparency to...| JustDario
This week #FED and #BOJ have a lot to lose and very little to gain, a situation they put themselves into and that nobody tried to stop them from falling into. The money printer made so many people happy since the aftermath of the GFC, no motivation for anyone getting...| JustDario
“Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.” This is how on the 5th of November 2010 the almighty Ben Bernanke himself was...| JustDario
Every avalanche always starts with that last small drop of a snowflake that makes the whole pack of snow too heavy to stick on the mountain. Since the #FED and fellow Central Banks joined the BOJ in the great money-printing crusade to “save the world” from COVID-19 in March 2020,...| JustDario
A few weeks ago Goldman Sachs (#GS) performed poorly in the #FED annual stress tests, and since then, the bank has been fighting against its regulator’s request to increase the capital being held on the balance sheet (Goldman Sachs faces uphill battle in dispute with Federal Reserve over stress test)....| JustDario
In September 2023, I addressed for the first time the (nasty) topic of #banks’ balance sheet health in the “This time is not different” post on X. After that, I expanded the analysis to large US and European banks in “WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A...| JustDario
