Intro When we last looked at different partisan outcomes resulting from split-ticket voting, the Senate was our focus. To yield a worthwhile R2 value we compared Republican vote share between Presi…| Split Ticket
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the…| Split Ticket
Introduction This week’s edition of Watchlist brings us to two lesser-populated states with strongly Republican leanings: Nebraska and West Virginia. Neither one uses runoffs, so candidates wi…| Split Ticket
Senate After months of anxious waiting, the Republican Senate primary is finally over. Trump-endorsed venture capitalist J.D. Vance finished first with 32.2% of the vote, performing well in rural O…| Split Ticket
Introduction For this week’s edition of Watchlist, we return from a two-month primary dry spell and turn our attention to two Rust Belt states whose primaries will resume the 2022 primary ele…| Split Ticket
Welcome to the first split!Split Ticket will be sending out three different newsletters each week to keep up with our commitment to covering a wide variety of content. Each will have a specific the…| Split Ticket
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25…| Split Ticket
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample…| Split Ticket
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while th…| Split Ticket
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-…| Split Ticket