Political observers can readily recall the 2024 election outcome, with Trump’s sweep of the swing states being paired with Republicans trailing elsewhere downballot. Despite an arguably-favorable m…| Split Ticket
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the…| Split Ticket
Introduction This week’s edition of Watchlist brings us to two lesser-populated states with strongly Republican leanings: Nebraska and West Virginia. Neither one uses runoffs, so candidates wi…| Split Ticket
Senate After months of anxious waiting, the Republican Senate primary is finally over. Trump-endorsed venture capitalist J.D. Vance finished first with 32.2% of the vote, performing well in rural O…| Split Ticket
Introduction For this week’s edition of Watchlist, we return from a two-month primary dry spell and turn our attention to two Rust Belt states whose primaries will resume the 2022 primary ele…| Split Ticket
On March 1, Texas kicked off the 2022 election cycle with a bang by holding its first-in-the-nation primaries. But in a blockbuster schedule that included hotly-contested statewide races, perhaps n…| Split Ticket
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25…| Split Ticket
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while th…| Split Ticket
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect …| Split Ticket