NVIDIA’s cooking of its financial earnings has reached a level of beauty and sophistication that the company should be awarded 3 Michelin stars and be featured in an episode of the popular Netflix series Chef’s Table. Get comfortable because this episode is going to be one with many “Woah!” Singapore...| JustDario
Since last Thursday, a strange tension could be sensed on trading floors in Hong Kong and China, then on Friday, the $CNY suddenly sold off against the $USD. While the event has been greatly overlooked so far by investors, it might have been a pretty loud warning about the next...| JustDario
This is it, the point where the #BOJ cannot kick the can down the road any longer has arrived. As you know, I have written many times about the #BOJ, warning of the consequences of their unbelievably reckless actions. 🚩 $JPY CARRY TRADE – THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL TICKING TIME BOMB...| JustDario
I’ve spent over a decade living in Hong Kong, regularly traveling through Mainland China—except during the Covid-19 period, for obvious reasons. While many foreigners left, I stayed, immersing myself in the region’s culture and economy. This unique vantage point gives me direct access to life in China, unfiltered, while staying...| JustDario
Do you remember the scene from “The Big Short” movie when Charlie and Jamie, the dynamic duo of the “bedroom hedge fund” Brownfield, stumble across Jared Vennet’s pitch in the JP Morgan lobby? If you don’t, here is the link for a quick refresher. Keith Gill, also known as @TheRoaringKitty,...| JustDario
Between the end of September and the beginning of October 2023, the #MOAB (Mother of All Bubbles) house of cards was dangerously wobbling. In a great coup de theatre, Jerome Burns managed to pull a “FED ghost pivot” 🐇 out of his magic hat, which sent everyone on a #FOMO...| JustDario
As I write, NVIDIA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their “monster” Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn’t much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [JustDario], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange. Before I...| JustDario
The USD dollar keeps strengthening and currently, the $DXY index is trading again above 105 or up ~0.77% in the past 5 days. What about the $USD / $JPY exchange rate? It’s only up ~0.14% while, instead, it should already be trading above 152, also considering the move in US...| JustDario
What a clown show the US market has become. Please forgive me, but I cannot find any better words to describe it. Before the US #CPI came out, I wrote these words: “Once data is out and is within the range of expectations (even if “hot”), algorithms start dumping the...| JustDario
Yesterday, I posed this question: “WHAT IF NVIDIA SIMPLY TAGGED ALONG WITH A MICROSOFT AZURE SCAM PLAYBOOK?”. Twenty-four hours later, the company themselves replied to the question (I believe involuntarily), and the answer was “YES”. Please take a look at the part I highlighted from the #NVIDIA CFO commentary related...| JustDario
Since last week, while the market was distracted by the geopolitical slapping contest between Israel and Iran, both large banks (#KBE) and regional banks (#KRE) lost 5%, outpacing the S&P500 by more than 2%. JP Morgan, surprisingly, is leading the tumble, down almost 8% since releasing its Q1-24 results. Bank...| JustDario
In about 24 hours, the “Bank Term Funding Programme”, the infamous #BTFP, will be history. There should not have been any surprise about this if it wasn’t for the fact the banking situation today is much worse than it was one year ago when the #BTFP was launched. How dire...| JustDario
What are the differences between #Bitcoin and #Gold? If you put aside any personal views and stick with their pure characteristics, the two are not truly different from a monetary perspective: 1 – Both have limited supply, but at the same time, they can be divided into very minuscule units....| JustDario
First of all, I would like to praise The Information for its excellent work in doing proper journalism, something that nowadays is more unique than rare, sadly. Let’s start with the explosive article just published and that, of course, barely caught the attention of mainstream media that are being very...| JustDario
The Federal Reserve just released the results of its 2025 round of stress testing on 22 major US banks, and personally, I have never come across something more ridiculous and hypocritical. Let’s start with the fact that the FED itself admits how it found it appropriate to make this year’s...| JustDario
On the 29th of April, something very special happened, yet many did not grasp the importance of the event. Even if that day was a public holiday in Japan, hence there was no real liquidity in the US Treasuries (both spot and related derivatives) market overnight hours as usual, the...| JustDario
The next BOJ policy rate decision is approaching and, of course, much speculation surrounds it. I will not join the crowd because regardless of what happens next, it won’t change Japan’s fate in the medium to long term, as I have already discussed in these articles: The BOJ decision will...| JustDario
As I write, NVIDIA is the most valuable company in the world while a key component of its supply chain (to not always use the words “Ponzi scheme”) is on the verge of being delisted from the NASDAQ only a few months after being included in the S&P500 on March...| JustDario
Two months ago, in FINANCIAL MARKETS REACHED A “SINGULARITY” NO ONE WANTS TO DEAL WITH, I tried to highlight how legacy economic theories—built on assumptions that never fully materialized decades ago—are now ineffective in today’s economic context. In that article, I emphasized five key points: Today, @thesiriusreport posted one of...| JustDario
Something special happened today, or to be precise, did not happen. As Israel started its new military campaign against Iran, all risk assets in financial markets started to dive, from stock futures to crypto. Understandably, oil prices started to spike in what can potentially become a “VAR shock” event if...| JustDario
The past week has been incredibly interesting, to say the least. For the first time since the 2020 COVID crisis, we saw the FED Standing Repo Facility being tapped for a significant size by at least one bank (IF “EVERYTHING IS AWESOME” WHY THERE IS AT LEAST ONE LARGE BANK...| JustDario
This last week started with three clowns announcing a $500B “Stargate” project that they not only lacked funding for, but that structurally made no sense whatsoever. It ended with half of Silicon Valley in panic mode after suddenly waking up from their comfortable slumber to discover that their DeepSeek nightmare...| JustDario
Imagine a whole financial system (banks, insurances, and pension funds) that for decades never second-guessed the solvency and liquidity of its own country’s government bonds because no matter what, its central bank was always ready to show a bid in case there were no takers in the market. What I...| JustDario
While global investors are busily plucking daisy petals to decide between fear and #fomo, a (very) large elephant is crying out in pain in one corner of the globe. In a surreptitious move, #Softbank quietly rescheduled the release of their Financial Results for the entire 2023 fiscal year from the...| JustDario
At the European Central Bank (#ECB), they are so adamant about cutting rates lately that they are barely sparing a single day to remind markets about it (The time is ripe to cut interest rates next week, European Central Bank’s Rehn says). But, why such a rush when, even according...| JustDario
History never repeats, but it often rhymes. Yesterday was one of those very fascinating days in which you experience so many déjà vu moments. A few hours before #Softbank’s FY2023 results, a kitty started to roar again after more than 3 years of silence (@TheRoaringKitty), and vibes from 2021 started...| JustDario
First of all, who the hell is the latest counterpart added to the #FED Standing Repo Facility: “Norinchukin Bank”? “Officially,” it is a Cooperative Bank owned by Japanese agricultural, fishery, forestry cooperatives in #Japan. Yes, that’s right, an “agricultural” bank from Japan got a seat at the #FED big boys...| JustDario
A notification pops up on my phone about UBS’s latest earnings results and how cheerfully the market reacted, sending the stock up ~3% at the opening. As I always do, I go to the company’s investor relations website, download the latest report, and start reading. It didn’t take me long...| JustDario
“Is it possible for a bank to continue operating while being insolvent? The answer is yes, and Norinchukin Bank is the best example of it at the moment”. This was how I started my last article on Norinchukin Bank 3 months ago. This is why yesterday I wasn’t surprised at...| JustDario
As I was finishing up drafting this article, a “breaking news” pops up: “SoftBank to get first NVIDIA chips for Japan super computer”. How timely, right? SoftBank just released its quarterly financial statements that leave not much room for doubt: SoftBank group only has cash to stay in business for...| JustDario
During 2023, we have discussed so often how (ridiculously insolvent) banks have made extensive use of “Hold To Maturity” accounting to the point that it is now more appropriate to rename it “Hide Till Maturity” (TwitterX). Dump any asset with a market value implying a steep loss in the HTM...| JustDario
Two weeks ago, traders assigned a 60% probability to a FED emergency rate cut, potentially up to 75 basis points. Let me stress this point: an emergency rate cut isn’t an ordinary one. What was the “emergency” that required such a swift and powerful action from the FED two weeks...| JustDario
First of all, let’s do a quick recap of how we got here: At this point, something very important happens. On the 30th of July, right after US stocks opened for cash trading, someone very big was clearly being margin called and liquidated as I warned in this post here...| JustDario
This week we are going to have such a parade of central bank decisions on the menu: #RBA, #BOJ, #FOMC, #BOE, and #SNB 😵💫 All eyes will surely be on the #BOJ and the #FOMC. I do expect they will play “good cop bad cop” with market emotions. 🤭 The...| JustDario
As you know, I have been investigating US real estate, especially #CRE, since early last year (JustDario). Nowadays, the ginormous bubble popping up while #stocks keep hitting new ATH records is not a secret anymore. Surprisingly, despite the banking crisis that started in January 2023 and was never solved (the...| JustDario
Late last year, the #FED quietly added a very unique institution to its Standing REPO Facility: #Norinchukin Bank. Like every other news against the MSM narrative, this event was quickly brushed away from public attention. In the article “WHY IS THE FED PREPARING TO BAIL OUT A JAPANESE BANK? BECAUSE...| JustDario
If you think that Nvidia got where it is today because of its fundamental valuations, I am sorry but you might want to revise what “fundamental analysis” stands for. It’s no secret anymore that the company has been using borderline legal accounting shenanigans and commercial practices to report much higher...| JustDario
When you’ve spent enough time trading inside a bank and watching markets for hours a day, in my case I traded my first stock when I was 11, sometimes you’re able to spot if something suddenly starts behaving weirdly. This is exactly what happened with Morgan Stanley ($MS) in the...| JustDario
No, I didn’t get the title wrong, I meant to say that. You know why? Because that’s what’s written in $UBS Q4-23 financial statements just released. Let’s go straight into it. Please look at Picture 1 where you can see the amount of Total Assets and Total Liabilities still attached...| JustDario
I started the year writing about how in 2024 the practice used by banks of hiding their losses in Hold to Maturity books (hence “hide till maturity”) would have come to an end [Post Below] . However, I was wrong there, because I wrote this: “As I explained in a...| JustDario
Let’s give a round of applause to Jerome Burns (aka Jerome Powell) for his incredible confidence in saying things like “#inflation is showing some seasonality that doesn’t change its downward trend”. First of all, can someone remind him that what he has been commenting on in the last 6 years...| JustDario
Last week, Warren Buffett officially cut Berkshire Hathaway holdings in Bank of America to less than 10% ownership of the bank. Going forward, he will not be subject to prompt disclosures applied to “insiders”. In other words, he will be able to sell BAC shares at a faster pace without...| JustDario
Yesterday was the end of the third quarter of the year, which means banks (along with brokers and asset managers) were busy “window dressing” their books to make sure they looked as good as possible by the time the quarter-end snapshot of their financials was taken. Bank goals heading toward...| JustDario
Victory lap after victory lap, my sincere congratulations to all those who jumped onto this rally. Just remember profits only become real once you cash out, but clearly, this is not on anyone’s mind at the moment. Let me share a story with you first: I landed in Hong Kong...| JustDario
Everyone makes mistakes; that’s part of being human, and I make mistakes as well from time to time. The mistake I made this past week was overlooking the fact that SMCI fell into the “Large Accelerated Filers” category (wrong post here) concerning the mandatory reporting requirements the company has to...| JustDario
The FED just delivered an oversized cut with the S&P500 trading at all-time highs, signalling that, contrary to their mandate, their focus isn’t the economy anymore but to deliver the political agenda of the US Administration in charge. That the FED is now clearly solely focused on defending the stock...| JustDario
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is one of the most important indicators in global financial markets, serving as a reflection of investors’ sentiment, economic outlook, and central bank policy. By plotting the yields of government bonds across different maturities, the yield curve provides insight into the direction of interest rates,...| JustDario
WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A LIQUIDITY CRISIS BECAUSE ALREADY (RIDICULOUSLY) INSOLVENT?| JustDario
Last week I wrote the provocative, but substantiated, “THIS IS NOT 1987, 2000, 2008 OR 2020, BUT A WHOLE NEW MARKET MONSTER” with the main goal of bringing to everyone’s attention how the current financial market is presented with many “unknown unknowns.” Today it’s worth looking a little deeper in...| JustDario
I wonder why not many people are currently asking themselves a very simple question: “Who lost money in #Japan’s stock market crash between Friday and Monday?” One very peculiar thing about the 1987 crash is that many brokerages went bust. So how is it possible that Japan suffered a stock...| JustDario
These days there are a lot of comparisons being made with what happened in previous financial crises that unfolded after times of irrational exuberance and reckless monetary policy, but many are failing to grasp how the current situation is hardly comparable to what happened in the past for many reasons....| JustDario
3 months ago in “NVIDIA, ITS RECYCLED “#AI REVOLUTION” AND THE DARK SIDE OF IT KEPT AWAY FROM THE PUBLIC”, we already saw how the “#AI Revolution” was a PR campaign #NVIDIA tried to push already several times in the past without success. #OpenAI, a company founded on the 11th...| JustDario
While digging into #BAC‘s Q4-23 financial statements, I couldn’t help but wonder if they had lost their minds during the last three months of 2023. No, I am not referring to the “press release” or the “presentation,” which are usually prepared to “feed” the media rather than provide transparency to...| JustDario
This week #FED and #BOJ have a lot to lose and very little to gain, a situation they put themselves into and that nobody tried to stop them from falling into. The money printer made so many people happy since the aftermath of the GFC, no motivation for anyone getting...| JustDario
Every avalanche always starts with that last small drop of a snowflake that makes the whole pack of snow too heavy to stick on the mountain. Since the #FED and fellow Central Banks joined the BOJ in the great money-printing crusade to “save the world” from COVID-19 in March 2020,...| JustDario
February 22, 2013 case number 1:2013cv01225 US District Court for the Southern District of New York Plaintiff Valentin Petrov Defendant Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (link). “The Exchange Act claims allege that Defendants engaged in a fraudulent scheme to artificially inflate the Company’s stock price. As a result of the fraud described...| JustDario
In September 2023, I addressed for the first time the (nasty) topic of #banks’ balance sheet health in the “This time is not different” post on X. After that, I expanded the analysis to large US and European banks in “WHICH BANKS ARE AT RISK OF GOING BUST IN A...| JustDario
Today, #Norinchukin Bank is starting to be less of an obscure name compared to more than 7 months ago when the #FED quietly added it to the list of counterparts eligible to access the standing Repo Facility the central bank established with the purpose of dealing with emergency liquidity shortfalls...| JustDario
Three months ago, in “Why a Historical $JPY Currency Crisis Is at the Doorstep of Japan”, we discussed the precarious state of the Japanese yen (#JPY). Considering the volume of JPY printed, the size of Japan’s economy, and its foreign reserves, the yen should have been trading at 298 against...| JustDario
The #Nvidia 10-Q for the latest quarter is now out, and I have to admit the company is doing an incredibly good job in covering its back from any potential legal consequences of its actions once the incredible Ponzi scheme they are part of will inevitably collapse under its own...| JustDario