AI 2027 predicts generally superintelligent AIs in 2028. This supplement introduces our framework for thinking about the progression from AIs that are superhuman coders to generally superintelligent, and justifies why we think it's plausible the progression would take about 1 year.| ai-2027.com
Our new article explores whether deployment of advanced AI systems could lead to growth rates ten times higher than those of today’s frontier economies.| Epoch AI
Returns to R&D are key in growth dynamics and AI development. Our paper introduces new empirical techniques to estimate this vital parameter.| Epoch AI
Discussions about AI progress often center on the importance of compute scaling and algorithmic improvements to achieve new capabilities, and there is evidence that AI systems are beginning to contribute to AI progress. This paper explores what might happen to the pace of progress in a scenario where AI systems could fully automate AI research. We present insights from interviews with AI researchers from leading AI companies to explore how this scenario would alter the pace of algorithmic pro...| Forethought
The development of AI that is more broadly capable than humans will create a new and serious threat: *AI-enabled coups*. An AI-enabled coup could be staged by a very small group, or just a single person, and could occur even in established democracies. Sufficiently advanced AI will introduce three novel dynamics that significantly increase coup risk. Firstly, military and government leaders could fully replace human personnel with AI systems that are *singularly loyal* to them, eliminating th...| Forethought
AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.| ai-2027.com
Extraordinary claims requires extraordinary evidence, but that evidence is not always provided. I look at two examples of extraordinary claims based on rather less than extraordinary evidence, then draw lessons from this discussion.| Reflective altruism
[Cross posted on lesswrong; see here for my prior writings] There have been several studies to estimate the timelines for artificial general intelligence (aka AGI). Ajeya Cotra wro…| Windows On Theory
