This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict.| korybko.substack.com
The returning premier’s latest remarks are clearly trying to distract from his country’s worst political crisis since the 1980s while simultaneously discrediting his predecessor and those bonafide Polish patriots who’ve soured on Ukraine in recent months as well.| korybko.substack.com
Both parties are in a dilemma whereby each believes that they have more to gain at the level of national and political interests by escalating tensions than by being the first to de-escalate them.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s socio-economic and political problems are rapidly approaching crisis proportions and can only sustainably be resolved by freezing the conflict and focusing entirely on maintaining stability through multifaceted means.| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s problems are immense and multifaceted, but they’re all connected one way or another to the five following factors.| korybko.substack.com
At the absolute most, this aid package might prevent Ukraine’s collapse by keeping the state running and possibly slowing down Russia’s already glacial advance, thus potentially averting the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about in late February.| korybko.substack.com
What’s regarded as the worst-case scenario from the perspective of the ruling Ukrainian elite and their Western masters is the best-case scenario for the rest of the world.| korybko.substack.com
To summarize: 1) Ukraine is bracing for a Russian offensive by fortifying the entire front; 2) that scenario could be averted, however, by freezing the conflict; 3) but Zelensky refuses to do so due to his messianic delusions of victory despite sobering up a bit lately; 4) A Russian breakthrough could prompt NATO to directly intervene in Ukraine out of desperation to stop it if the front collapses; but 5) since this entails great risks, the US hopes that the secret Zaluzhny-Gerasimov talks wi...| korybko.substack.com
Ukraine’s problems are immense and multifaceted, but they’re all connected one way or another to the five following factors.| TheAltWorld
NATO is planning for a possible Russian breakthrough across the Line of Contact later this year but isn’t yet sure how to react if that happens.| TheAltWorld
