The AI guys meet national security - by Andrew Gawthorpe
A recent Silicon Valley manifesto has some disturbing features| amerex.substack.com
A recent Silicon Valley manifesto has some disturbing features| amerex.substack.com
Leopold Aschenbrenner, June 2024 You can see the future first in San Francisco. Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS - The Decade Ahead
The development of AI that is more broadly capable than humans will create a new and serious threat: *AI-enabled coups*. An AI-enabled coup could be staged by a very small group, or just a single person, and could occur even in established democracies. Sufficiently advanced AI will introduce three novel dynamics that significantly increase coup risk. Firstly, military and government leaders could fully replace human personnel with AI systems that are *singularly loyal* to them, eliminating th...| Forethought
We investigate four constraints to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. We predict 2e29 FLOP runs will be feasible by 2030.| Epoch AI
As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame will be on. "We must be curious to learn how such a set| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Superintelligence will give a decisive economic and military advantage. China isn’t at all out of the game yet. In the race to AGI, the free world’s very survival will be at stake. Can we maintain our preeminence over the authoritarian powers? And will we manage to avoid self-destruction along the way? The story of the| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
The internet is mostly complete. Where does tech go from here?| www.noahpinion.blog
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just| SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
