We investigate four constraints to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. We predict 2e29 FLOP runs will be feasible by 2030.| Epoch AI
Two years ago, I commissioned forecasts for state-of-the-art performance on several popular ML benchmarks. Forecasters were asked to predict state-of-the-art performance on June 30th of 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. While there were four benchmarks total, the two most notable were MATH (a dataset of free-response math contest problems) and| Bounded Regret