Our director explains Epoch AI’s mission and how we decide our priorities. In short, we work on projects to understand the trajectory of AI, share this knowledge publicly, and inform important decisions about AI.| Epoch AI
The development of AI that is more broadly capable than humans will create a new and serious threat: *AI-enabled coups*. An AI-enabled coup could be staged by a very small group, or just a single person, and could occur even in established democracies. Sufficiently advanced AI will introduce three novel dynamics that significantly increase coup risk. Firstly, military and government leaders could fully replace human personnel with AI systems that are *singularly loyal* to them, eliminating th...| Forethought
AI’s “train-once-deploy-many” advantage yields increasing returns: doubling compute more than doubles output by increasing models’ inference efficiency and enabling more deployed inference instances.| Epoch AI
Most people think of AI as a pattern-matching chatbot – good at writing emails, terrible at real thinking.| benjamintodd.substack.com
We investigate four constraints to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. We predict 2e29 FLOP runs will be feasible by 2030.| Epoch AI
Scaling will run out. The question is when.| www.aisnakeoil.com