In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress: OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI" Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years" Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn t...| 80,000 Hours
“Any fool can know. The point is to understand.” ― Albert Einstein| www.strangeloopcanon.com
We investigate four constraints to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. We predict 2e29 FLOP runs will be feasible by 2030.| Epoch AI