This analysis examines the potential impacts on states and Medicaid enrollees of eliminating the 90% federal match rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion. Eliminating the federal match rate for adults in the Medicaid expansion could reduce Medicaid spending by nearly one-fifth ($1.9 trillion) over a 10-year period and up to nearly a quarter of all Medicaid enrollees (20 million people) could lose coverage.| KFF
This analysis examines the potential impacts on states and Medicaid enrollees of implementing a per capita cap on the federal share of Medicaid spending for the ACA Medicaid expansion population only, which is another proposal that has been discussed by members of Congress.| KFF
With President-elect Trump returning to the White House and Republicans controlling Congress, significant changes to the Medicaid expansion are expected. This data note provides key facts on the Medicaid expansion, highlighting the financial and coverage impacts of any changes across states that voted for President-elect Trump and those that voted for Vice President Harris.| KFF