The power required to train the largest frontier models is growing by more than 2x per year, and is on trend to reaching multiple gigawatts by 2030.| Epoch AI
Our database of benchmark results, featuring the performance of leading AI models on challenging tasks. It includes results from benchmarks evaluated internally by Epoch AI as well as data collected from external sources. The dashboard tracks AI progress over time, and correlates benchmark scores with key factors like compute or model accessibility.| Epoch AI
Adapting to emerging trends is essential to maximizing potential, minimizing risk and responsibly scaling generative AI adoption.| www.ibm.com
Algorithmic progress in AI may not reduce compute spending—instead, it could drive higher investment as efficiency unlocks new opportunities.| epochai.substack.com
Our ML trends dashboard showcases key statistics on the trajectory of artificial intelligence, including compute, costs, data, hardware and more.| Epoch AI
Returns to R&D are key in growth dynamics and AI development. Our paper introduces new empirical techniques to estimate this vital parameter.| Epoch AI
I’m writing a new guide to careers to help AGI go well. Here's a summary of the key messages as they stand.| benjamintodd.substack.com
We project how many notable AI models will exceed training compute thresholds. Model counts rapidly grow from 10 above 1e26 FLOP by 2026, to over 200 by 2030.| Epoch AI
In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress: OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI" Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years" Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn t...| 80,000 Hours
I'm writing a new guide to careers to help artificial general intelligence (AGI) go well. Here's a summary of the bottom lines that'll be in the guide as it stands. Stay tuned to hear our full reasoning and updates as our views evolve. In short: The chance of an AGI-driven technological explosion before 2030 — creating one of the most pivotal periods in history — is high enough to act on.| 80,000 Hours
The DeepSeek Narrative Takes the World by Storm DeepSeek took the world by storm. For the last week, DeepSeek has been the only topic that anyone in the world wants to talk about. As it currently s…| SemiAnalysis
Some notes on robot economics.| benjamintodd.substack.com
We investigate four constraints to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. We predict 2e29 FLOP runs will be feasible by 2030.| Epoch AI
