Exploring how the leading AI country could achieve economic dominance through superexponential growth dynamics. Analysis of trade, technological diffusion, and space resource scenarios that could enable one nation to control >99% of global output post-AGI.| Forethought
AI's biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.| epochai.substack.com
Returns to R&D are key in growth dynamics and AI development. Our paper introduces new empirical techniques to estimate this vital parameter.| Epoch AI
In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress: OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI" Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years" Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn t...| 80,000 Hours
I'm writing a new guide to careers to help artificial general intelligence (AGI) go well. Here's a summary of the bottom lines that'll be in the guide as it stands. Stay tuned to hear our full reasoning and updates as our views evolve. In short: The chance of an AGI-driven technological explosion before 2030 — creating one of the most pivotal periods in history — is high enough to act on.| 80,000 Hours
AI’s biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.| Epoch AI
