“Current Policy Baseline” Gimmick Could Explode the Debt-2025-02-27
2025-02-27-As the| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
2025-02-27-As the| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
PWBM is a nonpartisan, research-based initiative that provides accurate, accessible and transparent economic analysis of public policy’s fiscal impact. Using the project’s research briefs and interactive budget tools enables analysis of legislation while it is drafted.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 22.9 percent in 30 years. GDP decreases by 3.6 percent, and wages fall by 2.9 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
*Bill text from the House Committee on Agriculture reflects changes to the numbers used in the following piece. Due to a successful pressure campaign from advocates, cost-sharing for states will start at 5% for SNAP; however, the overall directional effects for this policy still stand as written.| The Institute for College Access & Success
2025-04-21-The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently found that extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and adding $1.5 trillion in additional| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.7 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.1 trillion) than the conventional.| Penn Wharton Budget Model
PACE is a proven policy tool for private investment in clean energy, resilience, and local...| PACENation
