Key Takeaways • The claim that "You should only believe that for which you have sufficient evidence” is popular but it contains an extremely important error. It treats belief as binary: either you believe something (because you have enough evidence for it) or you don't (because you don't have enough evidence). • It is more accurate to think of belief as probabilistic. There are probably contexts where you already do this, but some where it is much less common. • Misleading ideas about...| Clearer Thinking